IDC FutureScape 2026: China's Manufacturing Industry Moves Towards Autonomous Operations

Open Virtualized Platforms Will Reshape Factory Control Hubs

International Data Corporation (IDC) pointed out in its newly released "IDC FutureScape 2026: China Manufacturing Top 10 Predictions" report that, strongly driven by the trend of Autonomous Operations, by 2029, 30% of Chinese factories will centrally manage control systems through Open Virtualised Automation Platforms (OVAP). This prediction sends a clear signal: automation control in China's manufacturing industry is accelerating its transition from closed, proprietary traditional architectures to an open, software-defined new generation.

IDC's FutureScape series of reports has historically been regarded as a bellwether for technology investment and strategic planning. This year's predictions for China's manufacturing industry center around the core argument of "Autonomous Operations"—a concept that goes beyond traditional automation, meaning that factories can achieve autonomous decision-making throughout the entire process from order receipt, production scheduling, quality control, to logistics distribution with minimal human intervention, through the automatic closed-loop of AI, digital twins, edge computing, and open control architectures.

From Proprietary and Closed to Open Virtualization: The Paradigm Shift of Control Systems

For the past several decades, factory production control systems have long been dominated by the proprietary architectures of traditional industrial automation giants such as Siemens, Rockwell, and Mitsubishi. Although these systems are stable and reliable, they have obvious limitations: vertical closure, poor interoperability, long upgrade cycles, and high dependence on vendor lock-in. As the manufacturing industry enters a market environment of "high-mix, low-volume, and high-frequency switching," the flexibility shortcomings of closed architectures have become increasingly prominent.

The emergence of OVAP directly addresses this pain point. Open Virtualised Automation Platforms run the functions of traditional PLCs (Programmable Logic Controllers) and DCSs (Distributed Control Systems) in the form of software on general-purpose industrial servers or edge hardware, and schedule resources through a unified virtualization layer. This means that the same hardware can simultaneously carry multiple workloads such as control, machine vision inspection, and data analysis, and software modules from different vendors can operate collaboratively on the same platform, rather than being isolated islands.

The IDC report particularly points out that the "Open Process Automation" (OPA) standards forum, jointly supported by giants in the industrial automation field, and the "EdgeX Foundry" project led by the Linux Foundation, are becoming key ecological forces driving the implementation of OVAP. Local Chinese vendors such as Huawei, SUPCON, and Inovance Technology are also actively participating in the formulation of relevant standards, striving to take the initiative in this round of architectural transformation.

Industry Impact: Broad Penetration from Automotive to Semiconductors

IDC predicts that the early applications of OVAP will be concentrated in industries with high requirements for production flexibility, such as automotive manufacturing, electronics assembly, and semiconductor packaging and testing. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, a production line may need to handle rapid switching between different vehicle models and different battery specifications at the same time. Program modifications for closed PLCs often take days or even weeks, while software-defined control based on OVAP can complete parameter adjustments and simulation verification within hours. This capability of "software-defined production" is becoming a key competitive differentiator for manufacturing enterprises.

In large-scale process industries—such as petrochemicals, steel, and pharmaceuticals—the adoption pace of OVAP is relatively slow because these industries have extremely high requirements for system real-time performance, determinism, and Safety Integrity Level (SIL). However, IDC believes that with the maturity of 5G private networks, TSN (Time-Sensitive Networking), and edge AI chips, the "partial openness" of process industries will enter a substantive implementation phase around 2028. By then, enterprises will be able to gradually open up non-critical data acquisition and monitoring levels while retaining closed-loop control of critical loops.

The report also warns that the promotion of OVAP is not without obstacles. The high difficulty of technical transformation for existing production lines, the large migration costs of legacy systems, and the cultural gap between OT (Operational Technology) and IT (Information Technology) teams remain three realistic challenges hindering enterprises from embracing open architectures. IDC recommends that enterprises adopt a gradual strategy of "edge first, core later"—first conducting OVAP proof-of-concept on non-critical auxiliary processes or newly expanded production lines, and then gradually extending to core control areas after accumulating experience.

Inspirations for Hong Kong SMEs: A Window of Opportunity from Bystanders to Participants

Hong Kong's manufacturing industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The reality faced by many manufacturers is: aging existing equipment, limited IT budgets, and weak technical teams. Seeing the prediction in the IDC report about "30% of factories adopting OVAP" might make them feel that it is a matter for large enterprises. However, the wave of autonomous operations also brings actionable inspirations for Hong Kong SMEs:

• Equipment Networking as the Starting Point: The foundation of autonomous operations is data visibility. Hong Kong SMEs do not need to deploy a complete OVAP architecture in one step. Starting with simple equipment networking (connecting core equipment such as CNC machine tools and injection molding machines to IoT platforms) can already yield initial returns in production visualization. Huawei Cloud, Alibaba Cloud, and AWS all provide low-cost, lightweight IoT solutions with monthly fees of only a few hundred Hong Kong dollars.
• Edge Computing Reduces Upgrade Risks: Traditional PLC upgrades require production shutdown and modification, and the downtime cost is unbearable for SMEs. The virtualization characteristics of OVAP allow enterprises to first "run in parallel" old and new control systems on edge servers, and then smoothly switch to the new platform after a period of comparison and verification. This "dual-track parallel" model significantly reduces upgrade risks.
• Greater Bay Area Policy Dividends: Guangdong Province and Shenzhen Municipality have included "open automation platforms" in the scope of special subsidies for digital economy development. If Hong Kong enterprises have production bases in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, they can apply for relevant financial support through cross-border cooperation. The Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) has also recently launched the "Smart Manufacturing Upgrade Advisory Service" to provide SMEs with OVAP-related technical assessments and supplier matchmaking.
• Talent Transformation is Just in Time: Autonomous operations are changing the skill requirements for traditional electrical engineers—in addition to being familiar with ladder diagrams and function blocks, they also need to understand containerized deployment, Linux operating systems, and REST API debugging. Hong Kong's tertiary institutions and the Vocational Training Council (VTC) have begun to offer interdisciplinary courses combining OT/IT, and SMEs may consider sponsoring their existing technical teams for in-service training.

IDC's FutureScape predictions have never been about foretelling the future, but about helping enterprises make better decisions today. When 30% of Chinese factories reconstruct their control hubs through open virtualized platforms in three years, the choice facing Hong Kong's SMEs is simple: become pioneers among this 30%, or compete among the 70% of catch-up players. The technical route of autonomous operations is already clear, and it is worth serious consideration for the next step by every Hong Kong industrialist.